Have you heard about the outbreak of Coronavirus? How could you not? How concerned are you about your chance of infection? How likely is your chance of infection? While that is difficult to say, we can be sure that panic is not the answer. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what many people tend to do in situations like these. As humans we overreact because we naturally have cognitive biases which predispose us to overjudge threats as more likely than they are. Combined with high levels of media coverage, we become prone to exercise panic buying so as to feel we are exercising some control over a possibly dangerous outcome. That’s in part why so many people are buying up toilet paper among other items. As we prepare for the worst, irrational impulses inundate our more usual reasonable thinking. In fact, there is a lot of psychological research to explain how and why this happens. Below are five cognitive biases that make us perceive the threat of Coronavirus as worse than it actually is.
1. Fearful outcomes are overrated as more likely to occur than they actually do. Have you ever worried about the safety of flying in a commercial airline? People I have treated who have excessive anxiety about doing so often estimate the likelihood of a plane crash at 40-50% when in fact the odds are tiny, less even than of dying in an automobile crash on the freeway. So do you know anyone who has contracted the Coronavirus infection? If no, do you know anyone who knows someone who has contracted the infection? If not, then it may well be that you are overestimating the likelihood of contracting the virus.
2. When we can imagine fearful outcomes easily we make judgments that the event is likely to occur even when it is not. Have you ever worried about being bitten by a snake? If your answer is yes, you are not alone. Almost everyone who takes walks in the woods or in fields has, at some point, imagined the threat of a snake bite. Why? Not because the odds are high, but because we’ve seen endless movies about fearsome snakes and we hear about snake bites on the news. The idea of a snake bite is easy to imagine and we therefore think it could happen to us. The same is true of Coronavirus. With hundreds of stories being published on Coronavirus every day, we are naturally led to believe that the epidemic is bigger, closer, and more dangerous than it actually is. How can you combat this type of flawed reasoning? One way is to take a more passive interest in the news rather than being glued to the TV or reading every new Coronavirus headline that is published. This will make Coronavirus less in your awareness and consequently less threatening. Also note the two questions in cognitive bias number one above and for most of us we can move Coronavirus a little lower on our cognitive/emotional preoccupation scale.
3. Fearfulness results in less rational decision making. It is worthwhile to take a breath and do some calculations to help allay some of the fears. For example, consider that there are about 7.5 billion people in the world. According to the CDC, approximately 114,000 people have been infected as of yesterday. Let’s call it 100,000. That means the current odds of anyone in the world contracting the virus is approximately 1 in 75,000. Combine that with the fact that few people who contract the virus actually become seriously ill and you can see how irrational is our panic.
4. Humans have a bias for negativity. Alas, it is true. Humans appear hard wired toward negativity, sometimes called the “negativity bias”. Now this tendency often has served us well over our history. Our cognitive structures have endowed us with capacity to notice and attend to threats. It has helped our survival in difficult environments. However, it can lead to excessive worry and stress. For example, it is good for us to exercise flight or fight when faced with dangerous threats such as a saber toothed tiger. However, to react today with the same degree of worry and stress to our current threats leads to excessive anxiety and the stress which contributes negatively to our physical and mental health. Such threats often receive more attention than they deserve. Be cognizant of the fact that your mind is geared to help you survive. Be grateful but allow your rational mind to turn off worries when it is safe to do so. We discuss the effects of stress in our book (I Can’t Take It Anymore: How to Manage Stress so It Doesn’t Manage You; Paul G. Longobardi, Ph.D., and Janice B. Longobardi, R.N., B.S.N., P.H.N.), available on Amazon at https://www.amazon.com/dp/1542458056. For additional information about the book, authors, and stress, please visit our website at www.manageyourhealthandstress.com.
5. We want to believe that we are in control. It is very human to believe that we are in control of our fate and circumstances. When an event like a Coronavirus outbreak threatens that belief, we can become anxious, worried, and in panic. Those feelings can lead to the so-called “panic buying” of paper towels, toilet paper, water, and sanitizer. We are influenced by those around us as social creatures. If we are seeing others buying up the above items and see images of empty shelves, we are inclined to want to take action to regain our sense of control particularly in an unclear situation. However, it would be better to gain control by educating yourself about the virus, taking reasonable precautions such as washing hands, and observing recommendations such as limiting exposure to crowds.
In conclusion, be mindful of your (and my) tendencies toward cognitive biases. Coronavirus is almost certainly not coming for you. And, even if it were coming for you, panic is not the answer. Check your thinking, wash your hands, take other reasonable precautions, continue enjoying your life, and leave the rest to chance.
Good luck on your journey. Be well.
Dr. Paul Longobardi
For information on these and related topics, please see my website at www.successandmindset.com